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See opinion shifts as they happen across every race that matters to you.
See opinion shifts as they happen across every race that matters to you.
See opinion shifts as they happen across every race that matters to you.
Predictions Per week
M
Predictions Per week
M
Accuracy Rate
%
Accuracy Rate
%
Elections
Elections
Regions
Regions
Vantage Data
Explore Every Poll
Each indicator below breaks down nationally, regionally, by state, and by district with full crosstabs and archetype views inside every cut.
Vantage Data
Explore Every Poll
Each indicator below breaks down nationally, regionally, by state, and by district with full crosstabs and archetype views inside every cut.
Vantage Data
Explore Every Poll
Each indicator below breaks down nationally, regionally, by state, and by district with full crosstabs and archetype views inside every cut.
01
Vote Share
Where every candidate stands, right now. Track head-to-head support across the electorate, with breakouts by geography, demographic, and coalition so you can see exactly where the race is being won or lost.
01
Vote Share
Where every candidate stands, right now. Track head-to-head support across the electorate, with breakouts by geography, demographic, and coalition so you can see exactly where the race is being won or lost.
02
Win Probability
Our model converts ballot results into a probabilistic forecast, factoring in uncertainty, turnout dynamics, and structural conditions, answering not just who’s ahead, but who’s likely to win.
02
Win Probability
Our model converts ballot results into a probabilistic forecast, factoring in uncertainty, turnout dynamics, and structural conditions, answering not just who’s ahead, but who’s likely to win.
03
Net Favorability
The leading indicator behind every ballot test. Measure how voters truly feel about candidates and officials, and spot momentum shifts before they show up in vote share.
03
Net Favorability
The leading indicator behind every ballot test. Measure how voters truly feel about candidates and officials, and spot momentum shifts before they show up in vote share.
04
Name Recognition
Identify candidates with upside, opponents with hidden weakness, and the share of the electorate still forming an opinion.
04
Name Recognition
Identify candidates with upside, opponents with hidden weakness, and the share of the electorate still forming an opinion.
05
State Perception
The mood of the electorate. Capture right-track/wrong-track sentiment, issue salience, and confidence in direction. The environment every candidate and campaign has to operate in.
05
State Perception
The mood of the electorate. Capture right-track/wrong-track sentiment, issue salience, and confidence in direction. The environment every candidate and campaign has to operate in.
Vantage Data
Across Every Election
Vantage tracks every race that shapes American politics, from the White House to a single state house district. Federal or state, statewide or legislative, every contest gets the same modeling treatment and refreshes every week.
Vantage Data
Across Every Election
Vantage tracks every race that shapes American politics, from the White House to a single state house district. Federal or state, statewide or legislative, every contest gets the same modeling treatment and refreshes every week.
Vantage Data
Across Every Election
Vantage tracks every race that shapes American politics, from the White House to a single state house district. Federal or state, statewide or legislative, every contest gets the same modeling treatment and refreshes every week.
Federal Level
Federal Level
Federal Level
The races that decide who controls Washington. Presidential, every U.S. Senate seat, and all 435 U.S. House districts.
The races that decide who controls Washington. Presidential, every U.S. Senate seat, and all 435 U.S. House districts.
01
Presidential
National vote, state movement, and Electoral College pressure all tracked together.
02
Senate
Statewide contests translated into chamber control and seat-path scenarios.
03
House
District-level reads that make close seats comparable across the map.
State Level
State Level
State Level
The races that decide how states actually govern. Governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and treasurer at the statewide level, plus every state senate and state house seat in all 50 states.
The races that decide how states actually govern. Governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and treasurer at the statewide level, plus every state senate and state house seat in all 50 states.
04
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial
Governor races modeled with the same weekly cadence as federal contests.
05
Statewide offices
Statewide offices
Attorney general, secretary of state, and other statewide races kept visible.
06
State legislative
State legislative
Lower-chamber and upper-chamber districts arranged for localized comparison.
Governor
Attorney General
State House
State Treasurer
Secretary of State
State Senate
Vantage Data
In Every Region
Vantage estimates aren't trapped at the topline. We produce numbers at every level of geography that matters in American politics, from the national level down to a single county or state legislative district. 10,663 regions, every one of them refreshed weekly.
Vantage Data
In Every Region
Vantage estimates aren't trapped at the topline. We produce numbers at every level of geography that matters in American politics, from the national level down to a single county or state legislative district. 10,663 regions, every one of them refreshed weekly.
Vantage Data
In Every Region
Vantage estimates aren't trapped at the topline. We produce numbers at every level of geography that matters in American politics, from the national level down to a single county or state legislative district. 10,663 regions, every one of them refreshed weekly.
State, DC, National
52
County
3,142
State House Dist.
4,882
State Senate Dist.
1,942
Congressional Dist.
435
Media Markets
209
State, DC, National
52
County
3,142
State House Dist.
4,882
State Senate Dist.
1,942
Congressional Dist.
435
Media Markets
209
Vantage Data
By Any Voter Type
Vantage Data
By Any Voter Type
Vantage Data
By Any Voter Type
Demographics
Crosstabs break a topline number into the subgroups underneath it. Instead of a single answer, you see how every cut of the electorate responded.
Crosstabs break a topline number into the subgroups underneath it. Instead of a single answer, you see how every cut of the electorate responded.
Crosstabs break a topline number into the subgroups underneath it. Instead of a single answer, you see how every cut of the electorate responded.
Age
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers + Silent Gen
Gender
Male Female
Race
Black Hispanic White Other
Religion
Catholic Protestant Not Religious Other
Education
No College College Completed Graduate/Professional Degree
RUS
Rural Urban Suburban
Party
Democratic Republican Other
Income
Poor (<35k) Below Median (35K - 74k Above Median (75k - 125k) Rich (>125k)
Archetypes
An archetype is a named group of voters who share traits, behavior, and political tendencies. They give media, campaigns, donors, and operators a shared language for the segments that actually decide elections, and we track how every one of them is moving, week to week, in every place we cover.
An archetype is a named group of voters who share traits, behavior, and political tendencies. They give media, campaigns, donors, and operators a shared language for the segments that actually decide elections, and we track how every one of them is moving, week to week, in every place we cover.
An archetype is a named group of voters who share traits, behavior, and political tendencies. They give media, campaigns, donors, and operators a shared language for the segments that actually decide elections, and we track how every one of them is moving, week to week, in every place we cover.
Soccer Moms
College-educated white women in the suburbs. They're the most-watched swing group in the country. When they drift, competitive House and Senate races move with them.
White Working Class
White voters without a four-year degree. This is the bloc that swung from Obama to Trump and redrew the map. They still decide races across the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt exurbs.
Barstool Conservatives
Gen X and Millennial men who lean Republican or independent. They're culturally conservative but libertarian on weed, gambling, and abortion. You reach them through Rogan, Barstool, and UFC media. Their energy is a good read on populist enthusiasm.
Disaffected Young Men
Younger men with no party attachment. They don't turn out reliably and they don't trust traditional media. Both sides are chasing them. Their turnout alone can move a battleground a couple of points.
Black Women of Faith
Black Protestant women who vote Democratic. They're the party's most loyal and highest-turnout bloc. When their turnout slips, Democrats lose.
Hispanic Working Class Men
Hispanic men without a four-year degree. They moved faster than any group last cycle. Their shift toward Republicans reshaped Texas and Florida and opened up the Sun Belt.
Soccer Moms
College-educated white women in the suburbs. They're the most-watched swing group in the country. When they drift, competitive House and Senate races move with them.
White Working Class
White voters without a four-year degree. This is the bloc that swung from Obama to Trump and redrew the map. They still decide races across the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt exurbs.
Barstool Conservatives
Gen X and Millennial men who lean Republican or independent. They're culturally conservative but libertarian on weed, gambling, and abortion. You reach them through Rogan, Barstool, and UFC media. Their energy is a good read on populist enthusiasm.
Disaffected Young Men
Younger men with no party attachment. They don't turn out reliably and they don't trust traditional media. Both sides are chasing them. Their turnout alone can move a battleground a couple of points.
Black Women of Faith
Black Protestant women who vote Democratic. They're the party's most loyal and highest-turnout bloc. When their turnout slips, Democrats lose.
Hispanic Working Class Men
Hispanic men without a four-year degree. They moved faster than any group last cycle. Their shift toward Republicans reshaped Texas and Florida and opened up the Sun Belt.
Soccer Moms
College-educated white women in the suburbs. They're the most-watched swing group in the country. When they drift, competitive House and Senate races move with them.
White Working Class
White voters without a four-year degree. This is the bloc that swung from Obama to Trump and redrew the map. They still decide races across the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt exurbs.
Barstool Conservatives
Gen X and Millennial men who lean Republican or independent. They're culturally conservative but libertarian on weed, gambling, and abortion. You reach them through Rogan, Barstool, and UFC media. Their energy is a good read on populist enthusiasm.
Disaffected Young Men
Younger men with no party attachment. They don't turn out reliably and they don't trust traditional media. Both sides are chasing them. Their turnout alone can move a battleground a couple of points.
Black Women of Faith
Black Protestant women who vote Democratic. They're the party's most loyal and highest-turnout bloc. When their turnout slips, Democrats lose.
Hispanic Working Class Men
Hispanic men without a four-year degree. They moved faster than any group last cycle. Their shift toward Republicans reshaped Texas and Florida and opened up the Sun Belt.
Evangelical Republicans
Protestant Republicans. They're the mobilized religious base of the GOP. Their turnout sets the party's floor in almost every state.
MAGA Country
White, non-college Republicans in rural areas. They're the GOP's turnout engine. Their rising margins in the countryside offset the party's losses in the suburbs.
TikTok Left
Gen Z Democrats. They bring the party's activist energy on climate, debt, and social issues. They also supply the volunteers, small-dollar money, and college-town turnout.
Costco Centrists
Suburban independents who actually show up to vote. They're the normal voter both sides fight over. They decide on prices and vibes, not policy.
Tradwives
Younger conservative Christian women who embrace traditional family roles. Social media made them visible. Analysts read them as an early sign of the rightward shift among white women.
Young Black Men
Black men under 30. They're a small group with outsized symbolic weight. Any drift away from Democrats gets heavy coverage.
Evangelical Republicans
Protestant Republicans. They're the mobilized religious base of the GOP. Their turnout sets the party's floor in almost every state.
MAGA Country
White, non-college Republicans in rural areas. They're the GOP's turnout engine. Their rising margins in the countryside offset the party's losses in the suburbs.
TikTok Left
Gen Z Democrats. They bring the party's activist energy on climate, debt, and social issues. They also supply the volunteers, small-dollar money, and college-town turnout.
Costco Centrists
Suburban independents who actually show up to vote. They're the normal voter both sides fight over. They decide on prices and vibes, not policy.
Tradwives
Younger conservative Christian women who embrace traditional family roles. Social media made them visible. Analysts read them as an early sign of the rightward shift among white women.
Young Black Men
Black men under 30. They're a small group with outsized symbolic weight. Any drift away from Democrats gets heavy coverage.
Evangelical Republicans
Protestant Republicans. They're the mobilized religious base of the GOP. Their turnout sets the party's floor in almost every state.
MAGA Country
White, non-college Republicans in rural areas. They're the GOP's turnout engine. Their rising margins in the countryside offset the party's losses in the suburbs.
TikTok Left
Gen Z Democrats. They bring the party's activist energy on climate, debt, and social issues. They also supply the volunteers, small-dollar money, and college-town turnout.
Costco Centrists
Suburban independents who actually show up to vote. They're the normal voter both sides fight over. They decide on prices and vibes, not policy.
Tradwives
Younger conservative Christian women who embrace traditional family roles. Social media made them visible. Analysts read them as an early sign of the rightward shift among white women.
Young Black Men
Black men under 30. They're a small group with outsized symbolic weight. Any drift away from Democrats gets heavy coverage.
Country Club Republicans
Affluent, college-educated suburban Republicans. They're the most likely to defect over candidate quality. Their swings in wealthy suburbs have tipped whole states.
Latte Liberals
Highly educated urban Democrats. They're the party's ideological core. They turn out at high rates and supply much of its money, volunteers, and policy energy.
Hispanic Soccer Moms
College-educated Hispanic women in the suburbs. They're an emerging swing bloc. More and more, they decide Arizona, Nevada, and Texas.
Crypto Bros
Younger, high-earning independent men. They rally around crypto, deregulation, and anti-establishment messaging. They've become a real force in campaign money and online narrative.
Kennedy Catholics
Catholics in the suburbs and cities. They're the original swing vote. They're cross-pressured on abortion, immigration, and welfare. You find them in every battleground.
Waitress Moms
White working-class Republican women without a degree. They're a large and growing base. Inflation, safety, and affordability drive how they vote.
Country Club Republicans
Affluent, college-educated suburban Republicans. They're the most likely to defect over candidate quality. Their swings in wealthy suburbs have tipped whole states.
Latte Liberals
Highly educated urban Democrats. They're the party's ideological core. They turn out at high rates and supply much of its money, volunteers, and policy energy.
Hispanic Soccer Moms
College-educated Hispanic women in the suburbs. They're an emerging swing bloc. More and more, they decide Arizona, Nevada, and Texas.
Crypto Bros
Younger, high-earning independent men. They rally around crypto, deregulation, and anti-establishment messaging. They've become a real force in campaign money and online narrative.
Kennedy Catholics
Catholics in the suburbs and cities. They're the original swing vote. They're cross-pressured on abortion, immigration, and welfare. You find them in every battleground.
Waitress Moms
White working-class Republican women without a degree. They're a large and growing base. Inflation, safety, and affordability drive how they vote.
Country Club Republicans
Affluent, college-educated suburban Republicans. They're the most likely to defect over candidate quality. Their swings in wealthy suburbs have tipped whole states.
Latte Liberals
Highly educated urban Democrats. They're the party's ideological core. They turn out at high rates and supply much of its money, volunteers, and policy energy.
Hispanic Soccer Moms
College-educated Hispanic women in the suburbs. They're an emerging swing bloc. More and more, they decide Arizona, Nevada, and Texas.
Crypto Bros
Younger, high-earning independent men. They rally around crypto, deregulation, and anti-establishment messaging. They've become a real force in campaign money and online narrative.
Kennedy Catholics
Catholics in the suburbs and cities. They're the original swing vote. They're cross-pressured on abortion, immigration, and welfare. You find them in every battleground.
Waitress Moms
White working-class Republican women without a degree. They're a large and growing base. Inflation, safety, and affordability drive how they vote.
Boomer Democrats
College-educated Boomers and seniors who vote Democratic. They aren't flashy, but they show up in midterms. That consistency keeps the party competitive in off years.
Blue Collar Men
Lower-income white men without a degree. They're kitchen-table voters. Wages, trade, and the cost of living matter to them more than the culture war.
Black Belt Voters
Rural Black voters without a college degree. Most live in the Southern Black Belt. They’re easy to overlook, but they can decide tight races across the South.
Secular Suburbanites
College-educated suburbanites with no religion. They're the fast-growing 'nones.' They lean socially liberal and fiscally moderate, and culture-war messaging turns them off.
Yellow Dog Democrats
Low-income rural Democrats. They complicate the idea that rural means red. You find them in the Black Belt, in Appalachia, and in Native communities.
Six-Figure Socialists
Affluent urban Democrats with graduate degrees. They're the fundraising engine of the progressive movement. Their priorities shape a lot of the party's platform.
Boomer Democrats
College-educated Boomers and seniors who vote Democratic. They aren't flashy, but they show up in midterms. That consistency keeps the party competitive in off years.
Blue Collar Men
Lower-income white men without a degree. They're kitchen-table voters. Wages, trade, and the cost of living matter to them more than the culture war.
Black Belt Voters
Rural Black voters without a college degree. Most live in the Southern Black Belt. They’re easy to overlook, but they can decide tight races across the South.
Secular Suburbanites
College-educated suburbanites with no religion. They're the fast-growing 'nones.' They lean socially liberal and fiscally moderate, and culture-war messaging turns them off.
Yellow Dog Democrats
Low-income rural Democrats. They complicate the idea that rural means red. You find them in the Black Belt, in Appalachia, and in Native communities.
Six-Figure Socialists
Affluent urban Democrats with graduate degrees. They're the fundraising engine of the progressive movement. Their priorities shape a lot of the party's platform.
Boomer Democrats
College-educated Boomers and seniors who vote Democratic. They aren't flashy, but they show up in midterms. That consistency keeps the party competitive in off years.
Blue Collar Men
Lower-income white men without a degree. They're kitchen-table voters. Wages, trade, and the cost of living matter to them more than the culture war.
Black Belt Voters
Rural Black voters without a college degree. Most live in the Southern Black Belt. They’re easy to overlook, but they can decide tight races across the South.
Secular Suburbanites
College-educated suburbanites with no religion. They're the fast-growing 'nones.' They lean socially liberal and fiscally moderate, and culture-war messaging turns them off.
Yellow Dog Democrats
Low-income rural Democrats. They complicate the idea that rural means red. You find them in the Black Belt, in Appalachia, and in Native communities.
Six-Figure Socialists
Affluent urban Democrats with graduate degrees. They're the fundraising engine of the progressive movement. Their priorities shape a lot of the party's platform.
Never Miss an Opinion
Every Election, Every Region, Every Week
Never Miss an Opinion
Every Election, Every Region, Every Week
Never Miss an Opinion
Every Election, Every Region, Every Week
Never Miss an Opinion
Every Election, Every Region, Every Week
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Weekly updates so you stay current on what’s changing
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Continuously expanding features to deepen what you can track
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The first-ever membership-based polling platform. Revolutionizing public opinion data with unparalleled speed, accuracy, and affordability.
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Voter Panel
The first-ever membership-based polling platform. Revolutionizing public opinion data with unparalleled speed, accuracy, and affordability.
Account
Voter Panel
The first-ever membership-based polling platform. Revolutionizing public opinion data with unparalleled speed, accuracy, and affordability.
Account
Voter Panel
The first-ever membership-based polling platform. Revolutionizing public opinion data with unparalleled speed, accuracy, and affordability.
The first-ever membership-based polling platform. Revolutionizing public opinion data with unparalleled speed, accuracy, and affordability.